Risk

Rycode

Watch list

A basis point is a hundredth of a percent. The dashed line is the level the risk is about.

  • The 30-year yield holds near 6% brief

    A hold near 6% raises the cost of new long-term government debt and mortgages.

    30-year Treasury yield

    5.30%

    70 basis points below 6%

    High and low
    Measure Since 9 Oct 52 weeks
    High 5.60% 5.67%
    Low 5.29% 4.55%

  • Oil and the $100 line brief

    Oil was above $100 at the first rate hike. Higher oil pushes prices up and keeps rates high.

    WTI crude oil

    $100.03

    $0.03 above $100

    High and low
    Measure Since 9 Oct 52 weeks
    High $103.66 $112.95
    Low $91.85 $55.27
  • AI build-out contagion Build $7.54B, Chips in correction, 3.4 pts from bear market, Market 8.8 pts from correction

    A slip in AI campus spending can travel to chip stocks and then to the whole market. brief

    A correction is a 10% drop from the peak. A bear market is a 20% drop.

    1. 1 Build

      Build-outs slip

      US private data-center construction, monthly

      $7,535M

      24 months High $7,535M Low $3,287M

      This is the money going into AI campuses. A slip here cuts chip orders.

    2. 2 Chips

      The market reacts

      SMH chip stock fund, daily close

      $557.98

      In a correction. 3.4 points from a bear market

      16.6% below the peak of $668.91 on 22 Jun 2026

      52 weeks High $668.91 Low $325.10

      Chip makers sell into the build-out, so their stocks react to a slip first.

    3. 3 Market

      The broad market drops

      S&P 500, daily close

      7,722.60

      8.8 points from a correction

      1.2% below the peak of 7,818.93 on 6 Oct 2026

      52 weeks High 7,818.93 Low 6,343.72

      Top 10 companies' share of SPY 39.46% 26 Oct 2026

      A few big AI names carry a large share of the index, so their drop pulls the whole market.

  • Debt refinancing Borrow $628B, Auctions 2.77, Costs 7.32%

    Treasury has to sell more debt at auction. When buyers bid less, yields rise and the cost reaches mortgages. brief

    Each dashed line is the recent average the latest reading is compared with.

    1. 1 Borrow

      Treasury borrows more

      Treasury net marketable borrowing, by quarter

      $628B

      $114B above its 4-quarter average of $514B

      14 quarters High $1,058B Low $65B

      Latest actual $190B Apr to Jun 2026, actual

      All 14 quarters
      $628B estimate
      $739B estimate
      $190B actual
      $577B actual
      $550B actual
      $1,058B actual
      $65B actual
      $369B actual
      $620B actual
      $762B actual
      $234B actual
      $748B actual
      $776B actual
      $1,010B actual

      This is new debt sold to private buyers. More of it means more to sell at each auction.

    2. 2 Auctions

      Buyers bid at auction

      10-year note auctions, bid-to-cover

      2.77

      0.23 above its 6-auction average of 2.54

      24 auctions High 2.77 Low 2.35

      High yield at this auction 5.300% 7 Oct 2026, reopening

      Bid-to-cover is the dollars bid for each dollar sold. Lower means weaker demand, and the sale clears at a higher yield.

    3. 3 Costs

      Borrowing costs rise

      Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate, weekly

      7.32%

      38 basis points above its 13-week average of 6.94%

      52 weeks High 7.40% Low 5.98%

      Prior week 7.40% 15 Oct 2026

      Mortgage rates follow Treasury yields, so weak auctions reach household loans.

Sources: Treasury, FiscalData, Yahoo Finance, Census, State Street, FRED · as of 27 Oct 2026

Emerging risks