Risk
The 30-year yield holds near 6%
If the 30-year Treasury yield reaches 6% and stays there, new long-term government debt and mortgages cost more. The numbers below come from the /risk/ watch-list feed.
Backstory
The US government has to refinance about $9.7 trillion of maturing securities in fiscal year 2026, according to the Government Accountability Office. That means replacing old debt with new debt, not paying it down. Most of it is short-term bills that Treasury already rolls over every week.
The 30-year Treasury yield is the interest rate the government pays to borrow for 30 years. In late August 2026 it was about 5.21% to 5.26%. That made for an expensive year, not a crash. The bad outcome this page tracks is the 30-year yield going to about 6% and staying there through at least one round of long-term borrowing. A single day at 6% that fades does not count. A 6% rate that lasts raises the cost of new long-term government debt and of mortgages.
Related trouble can show up first. Demand at Treasury auctions can weaken while the 30-year is still between 5.3% and 5.6%, and the gap between mortgage rates and Treasury yields can widen so households feel 6% mortgage pain before the Treasury yield gets there. Treasury has also enlarged its buybacks, purchases of its own older bonds that help keep them easy to trade, to at least $4 billion per operation in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year ranges, from 9 Sep through 4 Nov 2026.
Where we stand
Numbers as of 27 Oct 2026.
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.30% on 27 Oct 2026, 70 basis points below 6%. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. That is down 1 basis point from 5.31% on 26 Oct.
Over the past 52 weeks it has ranged from 4.55% on 28 Oct 2025 to 5.67% on 7 Oct. It sits 52% of the way from that low to 6%.
Today the 30-year shows no strain. It is 45 basis points under 5.75%, the first watch level, and has not closed at 6% in the past 52 weeks.
What we're watching
- The 30-year closing above 5.75%, the first watch level, then above 6%, and staying there through a long-term borrowing date rather than for one day.
- A close above 5.67%, which would be a new 52-week high.
- How well 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions go.
- The gap between mortgage rates and Treasury yields.
- 4 Nov 2026: the last day of Treasury's enlarged long-end buybacks.