Economics

Rycode

Watch list

  • Hiring slows Payrolls +29,000, Unemployment 4.2%, Claims 194,000 slower than recent

    Fewer jobs added each month, and more people out of work, would mean the labor market is cooling. brief

    Payroll months are first estimates, revised in each of the next two reports. The dashed lines are the prior 3-month average and the August unemployment rate.

    1. 1 Payrolls

      Jobs added each month

      Nonfarm payrolls, monthly change

      +29,000

      22,000 jobs below its prior 3-month average of +51,000

      slower than recent

      24 months High +237,000 Low -156,000

      Average hourly earnings, over the year 3.0% Sep 2026, preliminary

      The number of jobs employers added or cut, from the payroll survey of businesses.

    2. 2 Unemployment

      Share of workers without a job

      Unemployment rate, monthly

      4.2%

      0.1 points above Aug 4.1%

      24 months High 4.5% Low 4.0%

      People looking for work as a share of everyone working or looking, from the household survey.

    3. 3 Claims

      New claims for unemployment benefits

      Initial jobless claims, weekly

      194,000

      3,750 below its 4-week average of 197,750

      52 weeks High 235,000 Low 189,000

      People filing a first claim for unemployment benefits. It comes out every Thursday, between the monthly reports.

  • Inflation Core PCE 3.0%, Core CPI 2.6%, Core PPI 5.0%

    Prices compared with a year earlier, against the Fed's 2% target.

    Core leaves out food and energy, which jump around. The Fed's 2% target is set on PCE; CPI is shown against the same line. PPI (producer prices) has no target line.

    1. 1 Core PCE

      The Fed's preferred gauge

      Core PCE prices, over the year

      3.0%

      1.0 point above 2% target

      24 months High 3.2% Low 2.6%

      All-items PCE, over the year 3.4% Aug 2026, preliminary

      Personal consumption expenditures prices, from the Commerce Department. The newest month is revised in the next report.

    2. 2 Core CPI

      Consumer prices

      Core CPI, over the year

      2.6%

      0.6 points above 2% target

      24 months High 3.3% Low 2.4%

      All-items CPI, over the year 3.7% Sep 2026, final

      The consumer price index, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It comes out about two weeks before PCE.

    3. 3 Core PPI

      Producer prices

      Core PPI less food and energy, over the year

      5.0%

      24 months High 5.0% Low 2.7%

      All final demand PPI, over the year 6.3% Sep 2026, preliminary

      The producer price index, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: the prices businesses get for their goods and services, which can hint at where consumer prices go next. BLS's release leads with a narrower core that also leaves out trade services. BLS revises the last four months.

  • Rates and the yield curve Two-year 4.70%, Ten-year 4.99%, Curve 0.29 pts

    What the government pays to borrow for two and ten years, and the gap between them.

    A basis point is a hundredth of a percent. When the 2-year yield is above the 10-year, the curve is inverted and the gap is below zero.

    1. 1 Two-year

      Short-term borrowing

      2-year Treasury yield

      4.70%

      52 weeks High 4.92% Low 3.38%

      Moves with where traders expect the Fed's short-term rate to go.

    2. 2 Ten-year

      Long-term borrowing

      10-year Treasury yield

      4.99%

      1 basis point below 5%

      52 weeks High 5.31% Low 3.97%

      A high 10-year yield makes future company profits worth less today, which weighs on stock prices.

    3. 3 Curve

      Ten-year minus two-year

      10-year minus 2-year yield

      0.29 pts

      29 basis points above zero

      52 weeks High 0.74 pts Low 0.20 pts

      A positive gap means lenders want more to tie money up for longer.

  • Paying up for the boom S&P 500 8.8 pts from correction

    How far the S&P 500 sits below its 52-week high, and how much of the index a few companies make up. brief

    A correction is a 10% drop from the peak. A bear market is a 20% drop.

    1. 1 S&P 500

      Distance from the peak

      S&P 500, daily close

      7,722.60

      8.8 points from a correction

      1.2% below the peak of 7,818.93 on 6 Oct 2026

      52 weeks High 7,818.93 Low 6,343.72

      Top 10 companies' share of SPY 39.46% 26 Oct 2026

      A 10% drop from the high is a correction and a 20% drop is a bear market. The top-10 share shows how much a few big names carry.

Sources: Treasury, Yahoo Finance, State Street, FRED, BLS · as of 27 Oct 2026

  • Paying up for the boom

    This boom already has revenue and profit. The open question is the price paid for those earnings.

  • Payrolls and the jobs mix

    Hiring people who do the work with AI, not only people who manage that work.

SaaS

  • SaaS tracker

    Twenty-three public subscription software companies by sector, updated every Friday close, with the numbers from their SEC filings.