Risk
Oil and the $100 line
This brief tracks WTI crude against the $100 line it settled above on the day of the Fed's first rate hike, and the 10-year Treasury yield against 5%. The numbers below come from the /risk/ watch-list feed.
Backstory
The first line is $100 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main US crude benchmark. The second is 5% for the 10-year Treasury yield, the rate the government pays to borrow for ten years. Oil that high keeps energy feeding inflation, which works against the Fed's goal of getting inflation back to 2%. A high 10-year yield makes future company profits worth less today, which weighs on stock prices.
The $100 line dates to 16 Sep 2026. That day the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed body that sets short-term interest rates, raised its target for the federal funds rate, the overnight rate banks charge each other, by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%. The vote was 12 to 0. It was Kevin Warsh's first rate increase as Fed Chair. Brent, the main world crude benchmark, and WTI both settled above $100 a barrel on the day of the hike even after falling, according to Reuters.
The statement said inflation remains elevated and gave no schedule for future moves. The Fed's projections put the median year-end funds rate at 4.1%, above the new range's midpoint of 3.875%. The median forecast for 2026 PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred price gauge, rose to 3.7% from 3.6% in June.
Where we stand
Numbers as of 12 Oct 2026.
WTI crude futures closed at $93.20 a barrel on 12 Oct 2026, $6.80 below the $100 line, up from $91.85 on 9 Oct. On 16 Sep, the day of the hike, it closed at $102.43, so oil is $9.23 lower since then.
Over the past 52 weeks it has ranged from $55.27 on 16 Dec 2025 to $112.95 on 7 Apr. It sits 85% of the way from that low to $100.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.24% on 12 Oct, 24 basis points above 5%. That is up from 5.01% on the day of the hike.
Today only long rates show strain: the 10-year is above 5% while oil sits below $100.
What we're watching
- WTI closing back above $100, $6.80 above the latest close.
- A WTI close above $112.95, which would be a new 52-week high.
- The 10-year yield staying above 5%, or falling back below it.
- 27 to 28 Oct 2026: the next FOMC meeting.
- PCE inflation reports, set against the Fed's 3.7% median forecast for 2026.